2026 will be a time for mavericks whose diverse portfolios are able to benefit from the tailwind. In this way, the challenges of the market landscape can be mastered with confidence.
Review – solid growth in the second half of 2025
In 2025, the global economy showed remarkable resilience. It returned to a solid rate of growth in the second half of the year. Despite ongoing uncertainties due to tensions in trade and geopolitics, it benefited from expansive fiscal measures, loose monetary policy and significant investments, particularly in the technology sector. The extension of the trade truce between the US and China was crucial in preventing major economic decoupling and ensuring global stability. Volatility was noticeable on the financial markets, but many equities benefited from the current wave of innovation, while interest rates took a downward turn. The performance of government bonds was mixed: Yields fell in the US, German government bonds rose, and Swiss yields remained close to zero due to falling inflation.
Global growth remains resilient
The global economy is expected to remain robust in 2026. In the US, a stimulating tax policy is supporting the economy, while targeted adjustments to tariffs are intended to boost the confidence of households and companies, particularly in view of the mid-term elections. Domestic demand in China is expected to remain moderate. This reinforces the country's role as a global driver of disinflation. However, the government is relying on new impetus to support the economy. Europe, with Germany in the lead, is increasing investment in infrastructure and defense, but the outlook remains subdued in the absence of major structural reforms. Switzerland is benefiting from better conditions for its exporters following the conclusion of a customs agreement with the US, even if structural challenges remain. Its sectoral diversification and the solid financial position of households are important strengths.
Growth in consumption is likely to remain moderate, held back by a weaker labor market and subdued consumer sentiment. Inflation remains under control but shows regional differences: In the US, some prices continue to be influenced by customs duties.
A favorable macroeconomic environment for financial markets
Overall, this macroeconomic environment remains favorable for financial markets: Looser financial conditions and increasing investments promote corporate profitability. Despite high stock market valuations, profit growth is expected to remain solid. Investor sentiment should gradually improve, but economic and political concerns are dampening excessive optimism. On the other hand, they create room for positive surprises on the markets. Equities retain their attractive potential despite uncertainties and a possible increase in volatility in 2026.
Long-term interest rates in the US and Europe are likely to remain stable, provided inflation remains low, but the risk of fluctuations in bonds remains – especially if there are doubts about the sustainability of public debt. Swiss government bonds offer low but stable yields, supported by the Swiss National Bank's policy and inflation close to zero. The Swiss franc remains in demand due to its status as a safe investment. The credit markets should also remain solid, but caution is required in view of rising debt and a focus on innovation. The Swiss real estate market remains a symbol of stability. Following a strong correction, foreign real estate markets now offer attractive entry points for investors who want to diversify geographically, across sectors and in terms of regulation.
Structural market changes through AI: Challenges and opportunities for portfolio management
The rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the associated investments are changing the market structure worldwide, increasing global debt and uncertainty with regard to business models. This makes the system more susceptible to shocks. In this environment, traditional diversification is losing its effectiveness – especially in the US markets dominated by a few technology giants. Private markets are therefore gaining in importance, especially infrastructure investments: They often offer stable and predictable cash flows that are less dependent on the economic cycle and therefore make portfolios more resilient. Active management is also becoming more important in order to make targeted use of opportunities and manage risks flexibly.
For 2026, this offers encouraging prospects for disciplined investors with a diversified portfolio: They are better positioned to counter market fluctuations and benefit from new growth areas – especially if they include the opportunities of private markets and active management in their allocation.
FAQ
What are the prospects for the global economy and Switzerland in 2026?
The global economy will remain resilient in 2026, with robust growth especially in the United States driven by stimulative fiscal policies. In China, domestic demand is expected to remain moderate, contributing to global disinflation. Switzerland benefits from improved export conditions following a customs agreement with the United States and, thanks to its sectoral diversification and stable public finances, is well positioned to tackle structural challenges.
What perspectives do real estate investments offer in the current macroeconomic environment?
The currently favorable macroeconomic environment ensures stable conditions in the Swiss real estate market, which continues to be seen as a symbol of safety and stability. Supported by low inflation and the Swiss National Bank’s policies, yields remain steady. The Swiss franc is valued as a safe haven, further strengthening the domestic market. On international real estate markets, recent market corrections have created attractive entry opportunities. Investors who seek broad diversification across geography, sectors, and regulations particularly benefit.
How are investments in artificial intelligence changing portfolio management strategies?
Investments in artificial intelligence are leading to structural market changes and increased uncertainty. Traditional diversification is losing effectiveness, particularly in markets dominated by major technology companies. Private markets, especially infrastructure assets, as well as active portfolio management are gaining importance. They enable more flexible risk management and help capture opportunities—especially for disciplined investors with diversified portfolios.
